C-HARM
Model 

HABMAP

CDPH Phytoplankton Data 

TMMC
Strandings Data 

Pseudo-nitzschia - C-HARM tells us where conditions are suitable for Pseudo-nitzschia spp. (all size classes) to grow well and where they might be more likely to produce domoic acid. In July, the probability of a Pseudo-nitzschia spp. bloom  was still high all along the coast with some low offshore probabilities in the Southern California Bight near Orange and San Diego Counties. High nearshore probabilities of a Pseudo-nitzschia spp. bloom in Orange County were consistent with Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Alert Program (HABMAP) weekly sampling at Newport Beach Pier, and to a lesser extent, Stearns Wharf in Santa Barbara. The only location where the weekly HABMAP pier sampling by SCCOOS and CeNCOOS showed high potential for a toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia bloom (large "seriata" size class) was at the Newport Beach Pier in mid-July, although many of the sites did not have newly archived data with which to compare C-HARM predictions, particularly for the second half of the month. Keep in mind that C-HARM Pseudo-nitzschia spp. predictions do not discriminate between toxigenic and non-toxigenic species.

Domoic Acid - C-HARM predicted the highest likelihood of particulate domoic acid (pDA) production in the Southern CA Bight, the offshore region of central CA, and in the nearshore zone of the North Coast. Cellular domoic acid (cDA) predictions, which should tell us where Pseudo-nitzschia cells are likely to be most toxic on a per-cell basis, indicate that the Southern CA Bight is not currently a hot spot. The North Coast near Humboldt County and the central CA coast near Monterey Bay are regions predicted to have the highest cellular DA concentrations in July. Unfortunately, DA values from the HABMAP sampling are not yet available at any of the pier locations. It may be that the high salinity that has accompanied the record warm temperatures in the Southern California Bight the last two years since the "Blob" is what is driving the high pDA predictions in the region. This is because there is a strong positive relationship between salinity and particulate domoic acid in the C-HARM pDA model. That relationship is not as strong for cDA. In August, central and north coast sea lion strandings from DA toxicosis were in Monterey Bay and near the mouth of Eel River, consistent with elevated pDA and cDA likelihoods (from C-HARM) in those areas.

Alexandrium - The Alexandrium species (spp.) data collected by HABMAP show somewhat elevated Alexandrium spp. counts at the Santa Cruz Municipal Wharf at two time points in the first half of the month. On June 25, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) lifted health advisories related to sport-harvested bivalve shellfish (whole scallops and all clams) in Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz and Sonoma counties that were in place due to high levels of saxitoxin, the algal toxin produced by some Alexandrium spp. and that is associated with paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). Recent testing shows that saxitoxin has decreased to safe or undetectable levels.

C-HARM Model